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17.07.2025
Adapting to Climate Change in Kazakhstan
Relevance
Climate change is one of the main global threats impacting sustainable develop- ment of both developing and developed countries. As the largest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan faces major environmental challenges related to climate change.
The Climate Change Action report demonstrates that Kazakhstan’s climate is getting warmer. In 1991-2020, average annual temperatures grew by 0.9°C com- pared to 1961-1990. Days with temperatures above 30-35° C are becoming increas- ingly frequent in the country’s south, southwest, and west. Climate change makes heat waves stronger, and record temperatures seen in 2020 (1.92°C above average) exceeded the previous maximum recorded in 2013 (1.89°C).
In 2021, average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan was 1.58°С higher than the climate norm in 1961-1990, and this is the fihh-highest figure in the range of warmest years in 1941-2020. As average annual air temperatures grow, high sum- mer temperatures recur with greater frequency, which negatively affects flora, fauna, and human population.
The issue of adapting to climate change in Kazakhstan becomes all the more pressing since climate change and natural disasters have major effect on the
country’s economy and population. High temperatures, changing precipitation regime, extreme weathers such as droughts, floods, and dust storms cause dam- age to agriculture that is an important part of Kazakhstan’s economy. Falling crop yields, cattle losses, water shortages cause economic damages and can result in higher food prices. Additionally, climate disasters ohen force population to migrate fr om the affected regions thereby creating further social and infrastructural prob- lems. Extreme weathers also cause damage to urban and rural settlements, destroy buildings, roads, and communications, which translates into major repair costs and increases social instability.
In this context, the issues of adapting to climate change and having efficient disaster management become key factors in ensuring Kazakhstan’s sustainable development amid global environmental change.
Argument
Successful adaptation to climate change in Kazakhstan requires a compre- hensive approach that includes steps for preventing natural disasters and as well as strategies for minimizing their consequences. The outlook for Kazakhstan is fur- ther average temperature increases, which will cut water resources, change agricul- tural potential, and increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
Kazhydromet reports that the number of natural disasters in Kazakhstan has been climbing since 2019, mostly because of more frequent strong winds and dust storms in 2021. On the contrary, heavy rains in 2021 (10) were far fewer than in 2017 (32).
Kazakhstan’s Ministry for Emergency Situations reports that in 2017-2021, 1,647 people died and 5,724 were injured in natural disasters. As for economic damage, Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reports that the costs of natu- ral disaster recovery ballooned from KZT 1 bn. in 2010 to KZT 7.3 bn. in 2020, while the costs of anthropogenic disaster recovery shrank from over KZT 8 bn. in 2010 to KZT bn. in 2020.
Climate data analysis demonstrates that temperatures in Kazakhstan have already risen by 0.4–0.5° C over the last 30 years, which is higher than the world’s average. Forecasts predict that by the late 21st century, Kazakhstan’s temperatures may rise by 3–4° C, which will produce drastic changes in ecosystems and exacer- bate current problems with water resources.
Changing precipitation regime is particularly dangerous for Kazakhstan’s economy. For instance, Central Kazakhstan wh ere the main agricultural districts are is predicted to experience a major precipitation shrinkage, which will make droughts more frequent and crop growing conditions will consequently deterio- rate. The World Bank reports that Kazakhstan’s agriculture has already lost billions of dollars because of droughts.
Equally important is the impact natural disasters have on the social sphere. More frequent droughts and other extreme weathers result in deteriorating quality of life, particularly in rural areas.
Economic and social effects
Climate change in Kazakhstan carries both direct and indirect economic risks. Direct losses stem from the damage caused by natural disasters such as floods, droughts, fires, destroyed infrastructure. Climate change particularly affects agri- culture that still remains the key economic sector ensuring food security and jobs for millions of people. Falling crop yields and higher infrastructure rebuilding costs result in major economic losses.
Indirect losses stem from disrupting the environmental balance and from deteriorating health of the population. For instance, a greater number of dust storms and higher concentrations of airborne particles result in higher incidence of respiratory diseases, which in turn increases healthcare costs and reduces the population’s working ability. Deteriorating water quality caused by pollution and shrinking water resources can result in potable water shortages, which also affects socioeconomic development.
From the point of view of the social sphere, climate change also is fraught with the threat of greater inequality. It is especially true for agriculture that is par- ticularly vulnerable to climate disasters. The Economic Research Institute mod- eled several long-term outlooks for Kazakhstan predicting that frequent droughts would adversely affect economy. In dry years, the difference in real GDP increases to 2–2.5%. The drought scenario predicts that production will mostly drop in agri- culture and in the energy sector; by 2050, the slump may amount to 7–12%. Other sectors, such as chemical manufacturing and manufacturing of food and drinks, may be indirectly affected as well.
Agriculture and retail are expected to experience the greatest slump; they are particularly labor-intensive and extremely vulnerable to droughts. In 2050, total employment will fall by 1.6% compared to the base scenario.
Modelling the effect extreme precipitation may have on Kazakhstan’s econ- omy also produced negative results. By 2050, the difference in real GDP will increase to 1.5%. It will mostly be affected by a drop in exports that fall by 2.3% in 2050 compared to the base 2022 scenario, while imports increase by 1.1% in the first years and then drops by 0.3% as economy slows in subsequent years.
In order to prevent such losses, Kazakhstan needs to take adaptive measures. Some anti-drought measures to be used in adapting to climate change could include water-saving technologies, breeding drought-resistant crops, building multi-purpose reservoirs etc. Modelling demonstrates that investing into irrigation will increase agricultural production by 1.9% (KZT 117.3 bn.) by 2050 compared to the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. This adaptive mea- sure results in a GDP that is about 0.5% higher than in the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. Growth generally is driven by investments and increased household consumption.
Modelling the adaptive measure of building climate-resistant roads yields sim- ilar results. By 2050, investment in the first years and increased export potential later result in positive difference in real GDP increasing to 0.6% compared to the scenario without adaptation. Better roads cut travel time and costs, which results in exports growing on average by more than 1%.
Conclusions
Adapting to climate change is a vital task for Kazakhstan, which requires a comprehensive approach and an active interaction of all the parties concerned, including government bodies, the private sector, and local population. Natural disaster management should include both preventive steps, early alert systems, and effective emergency response systems.
Forecasts and current data demonstrate that unless Kazakhstan channels major effort into adaptation, it will face grave economic and social consequences. However, properly directed efforts and efficient resource management can both mitigate the consequences of climate change and use these challenges as a stim- ulus to develop sustainable and innovative technologies and create a sustainable economy capable of withstanding climate change.
Successful adaptation could create new jobs, improve quality of life in affected regions, and bolster sustainability of Kazakhstan’s economic and social systems. The principal outcome to be expected is improved preparedness for natural disas- ters, reduced economic losses, and Kazakhstan’s greater overall resistance to cli- mate change.
Therefore, adaptation to climate change and natural disaster management in Kazakhstan should take priority in state policies, which will ensure long-term sta- bility and prosperity amid global climate changes.
Climate change is one of the main global threats impacting sustainable develop- ment of both developing and developed countries. As the largest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan faces major environmental challenges related to climate change.
The Climate Change Action report demonstrates that Kazakhstan’s climate is getting warmer. In 1991-2020, average annual temperatures grew by 0.9°C com- pared to 1961-1990. Days with temperatures above 30-35° C are becoming increas- ingly frequent in the country’s south, southwest, and west. Climate change makes heat waves stronger, and record temperatures seen in 2020 (1.92°C above average) exceeded the previous maximum recorded in 2013 (1.89°C).
In 2021, average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan was 1.58°С higher than the climate norm in 1961-1990, and this is the fihh-highest figure in the range of warmest years in 1941-2020. As average annual air temperatures grow, high sum- mer temperatures recur with greater frequency, which negatively affects flora, fauna, and human population.
The issue of adapting to climate change in Kazakhstan becomes all the more pressing since climate change and natural disasters have major effect on the
country’s economy and population. High temperatures, changing precipitation regime, extreme weathers such as droughts, floods, and dust storms cause dam- age to agriculture that is an important part of Kazakhstan’s economy. Falling crop yields, cattle losses, water shortages cause economic damages and can result in higher food prices. Additionally, climate disasters ohen force population to migrate fr om the affected regions thereby creating further social and infrastructural prob- lems. Extreme weathers also cause damage to urban and rural settlements, destroy buildings, roads, and communications, which translates into major repair costs and increases social instability.
In this context, the issues of adapting to climate change and having efficient disaster management become key factors in ensuring Kazakhstan’s sustainable development amid global environmental change.
Argument
Successful adaptation to climate change in Kazakhstan requires a compre- hensive approach that includes steps for preventing natural disasters and as well as strategies for minimizing their consequences. The outlook for Kazakhstan is fur- ther average temperature increases, which will cut water resources, change agricul- tural potential, and increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
Kazhydromet reports that the number of natural disasters in Kazakhstan has been climbing since 2019, mostly because of more frequent strong winds and dust storms in 2021. On the contrary, heavy rains in 2021 (10) were far fewer than in 2017 (32).
Kazakhstan’s Ministry for Emergency Situations reports that in 2017-2021, 1,647 people died and 5,724 were injured in natural disasters. As for economic damage, Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reports that the costs of natu- ral disaster recovery ballooned from KZT 1 bn. in 2010 to KZT 7.3 bn. in 2020, while the costs of anthropogenic disaster recovery shrank from over KZT 8 bn. in 2010 to KZT bn. in 2020.
Climate data analysis demonstrates that temperatures in Kazakhstan have already risen by 0.4–0.5° C over the last 30 years, which is higher than the world’s average. Forecasts predict that by the late 21st century, Kazakhstan’s temperatures may rise by 3–4° C, which will produce drastic changes in ecosystems and exacer- bate current problems with water resources.
Changing precipitation regime is particularly dangerous for Kazakhstan’s economy. For instance, Central Kazakhstan wh ere the main agricultural districts are is predicted to experience a major precipitation shrinkage, which will make droughts more frequent and crop growing conditions will consequently deterio- rate. The World Bank reports that Kazakhstan’s agriculture has already lost billions of dollars because of droughts.
Equally important is the impact natural disasters have on the social sphere. More frequent droughts and other extreme weathers result in deteriorating quality of life, particularly in rural areas.
Economic and social effects
Climate change in Kazakhstan carries both direct and indirect economic risks. Direct losses stem from the damage caused by natural disasters such as floods, droughts, fires, destroyed infrastructure. Climate change particularly affects agri- culture that still remains the key economic sector ensuring food security and jobs for millions of people. Falling crop yields and higher infrastructure rebuilding costs result in major economic losses.
Indirect losses stem from disrupting the environmental balance and from deteriorating health of the population. For instance, a greater number of dust storms and higher concentrations of airborne particles result in higher incidence of respiratory diseases, which in turn increases healthcare costs and reduces the population’s working ability. Deteriorating water quality caused by pollution and shrinking water resources can result in potable water shortages, which also affects socioeconomic development.
From the point of view of the social sphere, climate change also is fraught with the threat of greater inequality. It is especially true for agriculture that is par- ticularly vulnerable to climate disasters. The Economic Research Institute mod- eled several long-term outlooks for Kazakhstan predicting that frequent droughts would adversely affect economy. In dry years, the difference in real GDP increases to 2–2.5%. The drought scenario predicts that production will mostly drop in agri- culture and in the energy sector; by 2050, the slump may amount to 7–12%. Other sectors, such as chemical manufacturing and manufacturing of food and drinks, may be indirectly affected as well.
Agriculture and retail are expected to experience the greatest slump; they are particularly labor-intensive and extremely vulnerable to droughts. In 2050, total employment will fall by 1.6% compared to the base scenario.
Modelling the effect extreme precipitation may have on Kazakhstan’s econ- omy also produced negative results. By 2050, the difference in real GDP will increase to 1.5%. It will mostly be affected by a drop in exports that fall by 2.3% in 2050 compared to the base 2022 scenario, while imports increase by 1.1% in the first years and then drops by 0.3% as economy slows in subsequent years.
In order to prevent such losses, Kazakhstan needs to take adaptive measures. Some anti-drought measures to be used in adapting to climate change could include water-saving technologies, breeding drought-resistant crops, building multi-purpose reservoirs etc. Modelling demonstrates that investing into irrigation will increase agricultural production by 1.9% (KZT 117.3 bn.) by 2050 compared to the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. This adaptive mea- sure results in a GDP that is about 0.5% higher than in the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. Growth generally is driven by investments and increased household consumption.
Modelling the adaptive measure of building climate-resistant roads yields sim- ilar results. By 2050, investment in the first years and increased export potential later result in positive difference in real GDP increasing to 0.6% compared to the scenario without adaptation. Better roads cut travel time and costs, which results in exports growing on average by more than 1%.
Conclusions
Adapting to climate change is a vital task for Kazakhstan, which requires a comprehensive approach and an active interaction of all the parties concerned, including government bodies, the private sector, and local population. Natural disaster management should include both preventive steps, early alert systems, and effective emergency response systems.
Forecasts and current data demonstrate that unless Kazakhstan channels major effort into adaptation, it will face grave economic and social consequences. However, properly directed efforts and efficient resource management can both mitigate the consequences of climate change and use these challenges as a stim- ulus to develop sustainable and innovative technologies and create a sustainable economy capable of withstanding climate change.
Successful adaptation could create new jobs, improve quality of life in affected regions, and bolster sustainability of Kazakhstan’s economic and social systems. The principal outcome to be expected is improved preparedness for natural disas- ters, reduced economic losses, and Kazakhstan’s greater overall resistance to cli- mate change.
Therefore, adaptation to climate change and natural disaster management in Kazakhstan should take priority in state policies, which will ensure long-term sta- bility and prosperity amid global climate changes.
Relevance
Climate change is one of the main global threats impacting sustainable development of both developing and developed countries. As the largest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan faces major environmental challenges related to climate change.
The Climate Change Action report demonstrates that Kazakhstan’s climate is getting warmer. In 1991-2020, average annual temperatures grew by 0.9°C compared to 1961-1990. Days with temperatures above 30-35° C are becoming increasingly frequent in the country’s south, southwest, and west. Climate change makes heat waves stronger, and record temperatures seen in 2020 (1.92°C above average) exceeded the previous maximum recorded in 2013 (1.89°C).
In 2021, average annual air temperature in Kazakhstan was 1.58°С higher than the climate norm in 1961-1990, and this is the fifth-highest figure in the range of warmest years in 1941-2020. As average annual air temperatures grow, high summer temperatures recur with greater frequency, which negatively affects flora, fauna, and human population.
The issue of adapting to climate change in Kazakhstan becomes all the more pressing since climate change and natural disasters have major effect on the country’s economy and population. High temperatures, changing precipitation regime, extreme weathers such as droughts, floods, and dust storms cause damage to agriculture that is an important part of Kazakhstan’s economy. Falling crop yields, cattle losses, water shortages cause economic damages and can result in higher food prices. Additionally, climate disasters often force population to migrate fr om the affected regions thereby creating further social and infrastructural problems. Extreme weathers also cause damage to urban and rural settlements, destroy buildings, roads, and communications, which translates into major repair costs and increases social instability.
In this context, the issues of adapting to climate change and having efficient disaster management become key factors in ensuring Kazakhstan’s sustainable development amid global environmental change.
Argument
Successful adaptation to climate change in Kazakhstan requires a comprehensive approach that includes steps for preventing natural disasters and as well as strategies for minimizing their consequences. The outlook for Kazakhstan is further average temperature increases, which will cut water resources, change agricultural potential, and increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
Kazhydromet reports that the number of natural disasters in Kazakhstan has been climbing since 2019, mostly because of more frequent strong winds and dust storms in 2021. On the contrary, heavy rains in 2021 (10) were far fewer than in 2017 (32).
Kazakhstan’s Ministry for Emergency Situations reports that in 2017-2021, 1,647 people died and 5,724 were injured in natural disasters. As for economic damage, Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reports that the costs of natural disaster recovery ballooned from KZT 1 bn. in 2010 to KZT 7.3 bn. in 2020, while the costs of anthropogenic disaster recovery shrank from over KZT 8 bn. in 2010 to KZT bn. in 2020.
Climate data analysis demonstrates that temperatures in Kazakhstan have already risen by 0.4–0.5° C over the last 30 years, which is higher than the world’s average. Forecasts predict that by the late 21st century, Kazakhstan’s temperatures may rise by 3–4° C, which will produce drastic changes in ecosystems and exacerbate current problems with water resources.
Changing precipitation regime is particularly dangerous for Kazakhstan’s economy. For instance, Central Kazakhstan wh ere the main agricultural districts are is predicted to experience a major precipitation shrinkage, which will make droughts more frequent and crop growing conditions will consequently deteriorate. The World Bank reports that Kazakhstan’s agriculture has already lost billions of dollars because of droughts.
Equally important is the impact natural disasters have on the social sphere. More frequent droughts and other extreme weathers result in deteriorating quality of life, particularly in rural areas.
Economic and social effects
Climate change in Kazakhstan carries both direct and indirect economic risks. Direct losses stem from the damage caused by natural disasters such as floods, droughts, fires, destroyed infrastructure. Climate change particularly affects agriculture that still remains the key economic sector ensuring food security and jobs for millions of people. Falling crop yields and higher infrastructure rebuilding costs result in major economic losses.
Indirect losses stem from disrupting the environmental balance and from deteriorating health of the population. For instance, a greater number of dust storms and higher concentrations of airborne particles result in higher incidence of respiratory diseases, which in turn increases healthcare costs and reduces the population’s working ability. Deteriorating water quality caused by pollution and shrinking water resources can result in potable water shortages, which also affects socioeconomic development.
From the point of view of the social sphere, climate change also is fraught with the threat of greater inequality. It is especially true for agriculture that is particularly vulnerable to climate disasters. The Economic Research Institute modeled several long-term outlooks for Kazakhstan predicting that frequent droughts would adversely affect economy. In dry years, the difference in real GDP increases to 2–2.5%. The drought scenario predicts that production will mostly drop in agriculture and in the energy sector; by 2050, the slump may amount to 7–12%. Other sectors, such as chemical manufacturing and manufacturing of food and drinks, may be indirectly affected as well.
Agriculture and retail are expected to experience the greatest slump; they are particularly labor-intensive and extremely vulnerable to droughts. In 2050, total employment will fall by 1.6% compared to the base scenario.
Modelling the effect extreme precipitation may have on Kazakhstan’s economy also produced negative results. By 2050, the difference in real GDP will increase to 1.5%. It will mostly be affected by a drop in exports that fall by 2.3% in 2050 compared to the base 2022 scenario, while imports increase by 1.1% in the first years and then drops by 0.3% as economy slows in subsequent years.
In order to prevent such losses, Kazakhstan needs to take adaptive measures. Some anti-drought measures to be used in adapting to climate change could include water-saving technologies, breeding drought-resistant crops, building multi-purpose reservoirs etc. Modelling demonstrates that investing into irrigation will increase agricultural production by 1.9% (KZT 117.3 bn.) by 2050 compared to the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. This adaptive measure results in a GDP that is about 0.5% higher than in the scenario with droughts and without adaptive measures. Growth generally is driven by investments and increased household consumption.
Modelling the adaptive measure of building climate-resistant roads yields similar results. By 2050, investment in the first years and increased export potential later result in positive difference in real GDP increasing to 0.6% compared to the scenario without adaptation. Better roads cut travel time and costs, which results in exports growing on average by more than 1%.
Conclusions
Adapting to climate change is a vital task for Kazakhstan, which requires a comprehensive approach and an active interaction of all the parties concerned, including government bodies, the private sector, and local population. Natural disaster management should include both preventive steps, early alert systems, and effective emergency response systems.
Forecasts and current data demonstrate that unless Kazakhstan channels major effort into adaptation, it will face grave economic and social consequences. However, properly directed efforts and efficient resource management can both mitigate the consequences of climate change and use these challenges as a stimulus to develop sustainable and innovative technologies and create a sustainable economy capable of withstanding climate change.
Successful adaptation could create new jobs, improve quality of life in affected regions, and bolster sustainability of Kazakhstan’s economic and social systems. The principal outcome to be expected is improved preparedness for natural disasters, reduced economic losses, and Kazakhstan’s greater overall resistance to climate change.
Therefore, adaptation to climate change and natural disaster management in Kazakhstan should take priority in state policies, which will ensure long-term stability and prosperity amid global climate changes.
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