Astronomy as a Way of Developing Human Potential and Technologies in a Multipolar World

Victor Daniel Vera Cervantes Permanent Seminar on Astronomy and Space Sciences (SPACE), National University of San Marcos, Lima, Peru Coordination Center for Outreach and Education of the International Astronomical Union in Peru Astronomy as a Way of Developing Human Potential and Technologies in a Multipolar World Topic: Investing in Human Capital: Strategies and Tools The impact of education and science on the social, economic, industrial and technological development is well known and their significance for humanity and contribution to its achievements are unquestionable. While the future of humanity beyond planet Earth is taking a more distinct shape, there are still very few government-sponsored programs and research projects where astronomy would be seen as an indispensable tool for societal development. This inadequacy may lead to serious challenges, both technological and socio-economic, which no country can handle on its own. In the modern world, where multipolarity exists even in outer space, it is critical to emphasize the importance of astronomy for our civilization and its benefits for various sectors, such as space sciences, that contribute to economic diversification. Astronomy can become a key driver of international cooperation and diplomacy. To make this happen, countries need to apply a cross-disciplinary approach in education, develop technologies for collaboration in space, and create political and science frameworks to make sure that cultural diversity is equally represented in the outer space. All these ideas could provide the basis for defining the scope and objectives of the BRICS Astronomy Working Group. Astronomy as a basic science Astronomy is by definition a basic science as its objective is to understand the inner workings of the surrounding world and the universe in general. It carries a special fascination for people that compels them to peer into telescopes with bated breath, trying to understand their place in the universe. Astronomy also stimulates interest in other sciences in general, while contributing to the advancement of space science and technology along with the comprehensive cross-disciplinary education that underpins the social and economic progress on Earth and beyond. Fig. 1. Some examples of how astronomy contributes to UN Sustainable Development Goals (International Astronomical Union, 2020). Astronomy’s impact Analysis of economic performance indicators has conclusively demonstrated that the development of cognitive abilities as a measure of education quality has a strong positive effect on the economy (Hanushek & Wößmann, 2010). Better education leads to better science and, therefore, to economic progress. Although, the economic impact of astronomy as a basic science has not been the object of any in-depth research, there have been studies that explored technological innovations at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) (Fernandes, Pessoa & Rui Silva, 2014). Also, there are multiple case studies of astronomy’s positive contributions to medicine, telecommunications and the aerospace industry (Rosenberg et al, 2013). The Office of Astronomy for Development (OAD) of the International Astronomical Union (IAU), based in South Africa, emphasized in its strategic plan that astronomy promotes the development of society, helping to accomplish UN Sustainable Development Goals (see Fig. 1), especially in developing countries which are still grappling with gaping social and economic divides. In this respect, astronomy helps to diversify the economy, while promoting social and environmental responsibility. A perfect illustration is astrotourism in regions with a thousands-of- years-old astronomical legacy, such as Latin America where nearly every archeological site is associated with the astronomical observations and practices of ancient civilizations. These countries foster astronomy-related tourism and carry out projects to promote astronomical education and sciences. Additionally, programs are in place to support the conservation of dark skies regarded as natural heritage and part of the global conservation efforts (UNESCO Office in Mexico, 2016). All these activities contribute to the development and diversification of the economy as well as a stronger national identity in countries with a painful colonial past, working their way towards sustainable development. Fig. 2. Space economy projections to 2035 ($ trillion) (McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice and World Economic Forum, 2024). The entire space industry is based on astronomy. Space sciences are applied disciplines that emerged from the concepts underlying this ancient science and driven by the needs of humanity to investigate the world beyond the bounds of our planet. Fig. 2 shows projections of the space economy growth in the next decade. In the next few years, space sciences will have a major impact on the global economy, boosting financial and production performance across nearly all sectors worldwide and becoming a driving force of the global economy. As a result, according to some estimates, the global economy is expected to generate about $1.8 trillion by 2035 (McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice and the World Economic Forum, 2024). This outlook is based on current challenges facing the world in different sectors. Just imagine what such forecasts could look like in the future. Astronomy as the future of humanity In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolay Kardashev proposed a classification of civilizations into three types based on their technological development. A Type I civilization is able to access and use all the energy available on its planet; a Type II civilization can utilize the energy of its star; and a Type III civilization is able to capture all the energy emitted by its galaxy (Kardashev, 1964). On this scale, our level of development is equivalent to 0.7276 (Zhang et al, 2023), meaning that we are a little more than 25% short of qualifying as a Type I civilization. What does this have to do with the future of humanity? Our civilization is going to face formidable challenges, threatening the existence of our and other species on the planet. Some of the challenges are just around the corner, while others won’t arise until much later. Some can be triggered by us, like global warming or a potential nuclear winter. Others are unavoidable, even if all the available technologies are mobilized to the rescue, such as Earth’s collision with a large celestial body or death of the Sun 4.5 billion years from now. Whenever these events occur, now or later, humanity will always strive to carry on with its existence on Earth regardless of any mistakes it may have made. Whether we like it or not, our planet will sooner or later stop being inhabitable, either for natural reasons or due to our irresponsible behavior. Will humanity be ready for this eventuality from the social and technological perspective? Will we be able to migrate to nearby planets? Will we able to make it to other star systems where we could survive? Or, are we doomed to extinction in this neck of the galaxy? The answer to the last question would be negative only if we progress well beyond Type I civilization and, perhaps, achieve Type II on the Kardashev scale. To do so, we should maximize our efforts in education, politics, economy, social development, technology and science in order to launch a large-scale space project that will ensure the survival of our species in the universe. Based on the data provided earlier (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 2), projects to develop astronomy and space sciences as applied disciplines in educational, social and economic spheres can help us to advance beyond the Type I civilization and all the way to Type II. But are we politically and diplomatically ready for such changes? Astronomy and diplomacy in a multipolar world Historically, international cooperation and astronomy have always been closely linked, in spite of the cultural differences between countries (Mauduit, 2017). This can be vividly illustrated by collaborations within the framework of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and the International Space Station (ISS). In today’s world where developing countries account for an increasingly larger share of the global economy, the BRICS Astronomy Working Group also has a bigger role to play with regard to astronomy (https://www.bricsastronomy.org/). This is a factor of fundamental importance. The development of astronomy and space sciences have always been the privilege of the global powers. Countries with less advanced education and science used to be excluded from active participation in projects, while diplomacy and international cooperation were usually the domain of developed nations. To achieve the long-term goal of ensuring the survival of our and other biological species in the space history and of advancing up the Kardashev scale, it is critical for this global project to have representation from all the countries. The BRICS Astronomy Working Group is an excellent initiative that opens the way to full-specter diplomacy which can make sure that Earth in space is represented by all cultures and nations of our planet rather than a few select countries. To achieve all the objectives that our civilization pursues on Earth and beyond, astronomy should be part of the agenda of human development in a multipolar world. If we can ever actually reach for the stars, we must also preserve our cultural diversity out there, in a distant corner of the galaxy where the future is going to take us. References 1. Fernandes, A., Pessoa, A., and Rui Silva, M. Does astronomy generate economic benefits? Technological innovation seen through the lens of the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope, 2014. 2. Hanushek, E. A. and Wößmann, L. Education and Economic Growth, 2010. 3. International Astronomical Union. IAU Strategic Plan 2020-2023, 2020. 4. Kardashev, N. S. Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations, Astronomy Journal (Astronomichesky Zhurnal), 1964, 41(2), pp.282–287. 5. Maudit J-C. Open Skies Policies in Astronomy: The Growing Need for Diplomacy on the Final Frontier, Center for Science Diplomacy of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2017. 6. McKinsey's Aerospace & Defense Practice and the World Economic Forum. Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth, 2024. 7. Rosenberg, M., Russo, P., Bladon, G. & Christensen, L.L. Astronomy in Everyday Life. CAPjournal 14, 2013. 8. UNESCO Office in Mexico City. The Right to Dark Skies, 2016. 9. Zhang A., Yang J., Luo, Y., Fan S. Forecasting the progression of human civilization on the Kardashev Scale through 2060 with a machine learning approach. Scientific Reports, Nature, 2023.