The Northern Sea Route and The New Transcontinental Corridor: A Strategic Vision to Link China, Russia and Africa Via the Dakhla Atlantic Port
INTRODUCTION :
The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs across the Arctic Ocean along the northern coast of Russia, is often presented as a strategic alternative to traditional maritime routes, especially those going through the Suez Canal. With global warming and the gradual ice melting, this route is becoming increasingly accessible for international shipping. According to (Armateur de France, 2020), the NSR is approximately 40% shorter compared with the traditional route between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal (around 13,000 km versus 22,000 km). But it cannot be used all year round. According to scientific estimates, it might become accessible for year-round navigation by non-ice-breaking vessels by 2050 (Brigham, 2022). However, smaller commercial carriers in niche markets and with sel ect cargoes have used the NSR during summer for trans-Arctic voyages between the Bering Strait and northern Norway. Approximately 9% to 11% of the NSR’s traffic tonnage in 2050 is expected to be trans-Arctic shipping (Brigham, 2022).
On the other hand, a study by (UNCTAD, 2022) indicates that the Suez Canal currently serves around 12% of the world’s maritime traffic, representing around 8% of global GDP. However, traditional routes, like the Suez Canal, are vulnerable to regional and geopolitical tensions as well as climate and economic crises. These factors have led to major disruptions, such as the blocking of the Suez Canal in March 2021 by the container ship Ever Given, which disrupted world trade for several days (Perspective monde, 2021).
Similarly, the Panama Canal is facing capacity constraints and climate risks. For example, the shortage of fresh water due to waves of drought has forced the Canal Authority to reduce the size of vessels allowed to pass through, thus limiting its traffic capacity (Miossec, 2024). In this context, the NSR offers a viable alternative. According to the study by (CYR, 2021), the primary advantage of NSR- based shipping is the much shorter route distance between Asia, Europe and North America. For instance, a voyage between Yokohama (Japan) and St. John’s (Canada) taken via the NSR would be 33% shorter compared to the established route through the Panama Canal. Vessels plying between Yokohama and Rotterdam in the Netherlands, which go through the Suez Canal, could take a 40% shortcut if they opted for the NSR instead (see Fig. 1) (CYR, 2021)
In addition, there is the Dakhla Atlantic Port on the Atlantic coast of Morocco, which positions itself as a potential strategic hub for linking the emerging economies that are part of BRICS+. The group, which now also includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, is a growing economic and geopolitical alliance. With more than 45% of the world’s population and 28% of the global GDP (Loizzo, 2023), these countries seek to enhance their trade and reduce dependence on traditional sea routes. The Dakhla Atlantic Port, located at a strategic crossroads between Africa, Europe and the Americas, could play a key role in this new shipping corridor.
KEY QUESTIONS AND ANALYSIS
The development of the Northern Sea Route and the integration of the Atlantic Dakhla Port into the global trade network raises several fundamental questions concerning the strategic, economic and geopolitical aspects of this ground-breaking project:
1. How could the NSR and Dakhla Atlantic Port revolutionize global trade?
The NSR and Dakhla Atlantic Port offer a viable alternative to traditional shipping routes like the Suez and Panama Canals. According to (CYR, 2021), the NSR could save 20% to 30% of transportation costs compared to traditional routes. Furthermore, the Dakhla Atlantic Port, located at a strategic crossroads between Africa, Europe and the Americas, could play a key role in this new corridor. For example, the Shanghai-Dakhla Atlantic-Rotterdam route is 15% shorter than the one via the Suez Canal (Chen & Liu, 2022). Shorter trips would drive significant savings in fuel and transportation costs, making companies more competitive.
The Dakhla Atlantic Port has unique potential to become the logistical center of gravity for BRICS+ countries, thanks to its equidistant geographical position and logistical opportunities. However, its success will depend on Morocco’s ability to leverage international partnerships and modernize its infrastructure. If these conditions are met, Dakhla could become a key hub of the South-South trade by 2030.
Sea Route Distances
|
Country (Port) |
Distance fr om Dakhla (nautical miles) |
Maritime Route |
|
Brazil (Santos) |
3,200 |
South Atlantic |
|
Russia (St. Petersburg) |
3,800 |
via Gibraltar and the North Sea |
|
India (Mumbai) |
5,500 |
Indian Ocean |
|
China (Shanghai) |
10,200 |
via the Suez Canal |
|
South Africa (Cape Town) |
4,000 |
Southeast Atlantic |
|
Egypt (Port Said) |
2,500 |
Mediterranean |
|
Ethiopia (Djibouti) |
4,200 |
Red Sea |
|
Iran (Bandar Abbas) |
5,800 |
Persian Gulf |
|
Saudi Arabia (Jeddah) |
4,500 |
Red Sea |
|
United Arab Emirates (Dubai) |
6,000 |
Persian Gulf |
Source: Estimated using data on SeaRoutes.com (2023).
Key observations:
Central position: Dakhla is located at an average distance of 4,900 nautical miles fr om the ports of BRICS+, versus 6,500 miles from Singapore.
Benefits for Africa and Europe: proximity to Europe (1,000 miles to Lisbon) and Sub-Saharan Africa that facilitates transshipment.
An alternative to the Suez Canal: For China and India, Dakhla would provide an alternative route to Europe and Africa, reducing dependence on the Suez Canal.
2. What are the technical, economic and geopolitical challenges
of the project?
Navigation in the Arctic poses multiple challenges, particularly the need for special infrastructure, including icebreaking vessels and adapted seaport facilities. Port infrastructure and logistical systems will require large-scale development to support this project. The economic challenges are associated with the high costs of the massive initial investment into ports, routes and railway lines. Geopolitically, the cooperation between China, Russia and Morocco will be essential, but geopolitical tensions could complicate negotiations.
3. What is the potential impact on the environment and local communities?
The NSR passes through a fragile region wh ere Arctic ecosystems are threatened by global warming and intensifying human activity. Increased shipping traffic would exacerbate pollution risks and disrupt natural habitats. In terms of the social impact, the development of the Dakhla Atlantic Port would create direct and indirect jobs, reducing unemployment in the regions involved. However, it is essential to make sure that these projects are also beneficial for local communities without damaging their way of life.
4. How can the participating countries benefit from this opportunity?
Several strategies could be adopted to maximize the chance of success for the project. China, Russia and Morocco need to work closely together to harmonize policies and share infrastructure costs. The parties must take steps to minimize the NSR’s environmental impact, including the use of low-carbon vessels. Morocco should accelerate the construction and upgrading of infrastructure around Dakhla Atlantic to meet project needs. Finally, African countries should be involved from the beginning to make sure that the project is in line with their economic and social interests.
5. What are the links between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and this project?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, is a global program to develop logistical infrastructure designed to strengthen links between Asia, Africa and Europe. In Africa, the BRI has already committed billions of dollars to infrastructure projects, including transport, energy and telecommunications. In Russia, the BRI is aligned with national infrastructure initiatives, such as the North Silk Road, which aims to improve connectivity between Russia and Asia.
a) BRI-NSR links in Africa
The BRI in Africa aims to reinforce links between African and Asian countries through land and sea infrastructure projects. The Dakhla Atlantic Port could play a key role in this new corridor as a logistical hub for transit cargoes between Asia and Africa. The BRI could support the development of Dakhla Atlantic by investing in port and logistical facilities as well as in railway and road networks to connect Dakhla with major African cities.
b) BRI-NSR links in Russia
In Russia, the BRI is aligned with national infrastructure initiatives, such as the North Silk Road, which aims to improve connectivity between Russia and Asia. The BRI could support NSR development by investing in maritime and port infrastructure along with railway links to connect Russia with Asia via the NSR. Besides, it could stimulate cooperation between China and Russia to develop green technologies and low-carbon vessels for the NSR.
c) BRI’s potential economic impact on the participating countries
The BRI could have a positive economic impact on the participating countries by strengthening business and trade ties and generating investment opportunities. In Africa, BRI could help to unlock isolated regions, providing better access to global markets. It could also strengthen Russia’s position as a logistics hub between Asia and Europe based on the NSR. At the same time, it is critical to ensure that these projects also benefit local communities and do not result in unbearable debt.
GENERAL CONCLUSION
The development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the integration of the Dakhla Atlantic Port into the global trade network are major strategic initiatives that can potentially reshape global trade flows. These economically and geopoliti- cally transformative projects will provide alternatives to traditional maritime routes through the Suez and Panama Canals that are increasingly vulnerable to regional and geopolitical tensions as well as climate and economic crises.
Reduced transportation costs and stronger competitiveness
The NSR can significantly reduce the distance between Asia, Europe and North America, resulting in 20% to 30% savings in fuel and transportation costs compared to traditional routes (CYR, 2021). For example, the NSR can potentially reduce the shipping distance between Yokohama (Japan) and Rotterdam (Netherlands) by as much as 40%. Moreover, the Dakhla Atlantic Port, located at a strategic crossroads between Africa, Europe and the Americas, offers a viable alternative to BRICS+ countries that could lower their dependence on the Suez Canal and make their companies more competitive.
Technical, economic and geopolitical challenges
The development of the NSR and the Dakhla Atlantic Port presents quite a few challenges. Navigation in the Arctic requires special infrastructure, including ice-breakers and adapted seaport facilities, and the project costs are going to be high due to large upfront infrastructural spending. Geopolitically, the cooperation between China, Russia and Morocco will be critical for harmonizing policies and sharing infrastructure costs. To address environmental challenges, the countries involved should take steps to minimize the NSR activity impact on fragile Arctic ecosystems and promote green technologies to cut CO2 emissions. In terms of its social impact, the development of the Dakhla Atlantic Port could create direct and indirect jobs, but it is important to make sure that these projects are equally beneficial for local communities without harming their way of life.
BRI’s role in the Project
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, could play a key role in this project by supporting the development of the necessary maritime and land infrastructure. The BRI can contribute to opening up isolated regions in Africa, giving them better access to global markets, while it could also strengthen Russia’s position as a logistical hub between Asia and Europe through the NSR. In addition, it can give impetus to cooperation between China and Russia to develop green technologies and low-carbon ships for the NSR.
Benefits for participating countries
The project to develop a transcontinental maritime corridor via the NSR and the Dakhla Atlantic Port can bring substantial economic benefits to the participating countries by boosting trade and creating investment opportunities. In Africa, the BRI would help to unlock isolated regions and provide better access to global markets. It could also strengthen Russia’s position as a logistical hub between Asia and Europe based on the NSR potential. However, it is critical to ensure that these projects also benefit local communities and do not result in unbearable debt
FINAL CONCLUSION
If the technical, economic and geopolitical challenges are successfully resolved, the NSR and Dakhla Atlantic Port could become an essential part of the international trade system. These projects have good potential to strengthen economic relations between continents and cut transportation costs as well as promote green technologies and sustainable infrastructure. The success of the whole project will depend on the ability of the participating countries to collaborate closely and make sure that these initiatives also benefit the local communities and the environment. The BRI could play a crucial role in this process by supporting the development of relevant infrastructure and strengthening trade links between BRICS+ members.
Expected outcomes:
• Reduced transportation costs — the NSR and Dakhla Atlantic Port could cut transportation costs by 20% to 30% versus traditional routes and therefore make businesses of the participating countries more competitive.
• Stronger economic relations — the project can boost trade between BRICS+ countries and drive economic development in the regions involved.
• Positive impact on employment — the development of the Dakhla Atlantic Port could create direct and indirect jobs, reducing unemployment in the associated regions.
• Strategic role of the BRI — the BRI could support the development of necessary infrastructure for the project, strengthening trade and business links and creating investment opportunities.
