Перевод
Язык оригинала
16.06.2025
Global energy transition: towards sustainable energy beyond renewables
This paper focuses on investments in technologies that enable affordable and sustainable energy. The author analyses the role of new renewable energy technolo- gies as a fundamental pillar of sustainable global growth and development, while also highlighting the need for deep systemic change to effectively address the cli- mate change crisis.
Renewable energy technologies based on sources such as solar energy, wind power and green hydrogen offer promising solutions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, which are the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are hence responsible for global warming — the phenomenon underlying climate change seen by many as the most pressing challenge of the 21st century. However, despite the importance of innovations in this area, they alone will not suffice to overcome the climate crisis. In this sense, the transition to clean and renewable energy sources, combined with a profound systemic transformation that guarantees a truly sustainable development, appears to be the most important condi- tion for reducing the harmful impact on the environment. Therefore, prioritising investment in technologies that can produce clean and renewable energy in a sustainable and affordable manner, along with interdisciplinary action to drive deep systemic change, are fundamental factors in developing a new platform for sustainable global growth.
Among renewable energy technologies, number one is solar energy that converts solar radiation into electricity using photovoltaic (PV) cells or concentrated solar power (CSP) systems (Zhang et al., 2016). Silicon, copper, cobalt, aluminium, cadmium and lithium are generally required for the production of photovoltaic cells (Rincón et al., 2024). Using this technology to generate useful energy has contributed in recent years to a reduction in GHG emissions by about 96% compared to coal, with global installed capacity increasing by a factor of about 15 between 2010 and 2022 (IPCC, 2022; IRENA, 2023). In addition, the normalised cost of electricity decreased by 85 % between 2010 and 2020. And PV generation prices are predicted to continue declining in the coming years (IRENA, 2021).
Another type of alternative energy is wind power, which harnesses the kinetic energy of the wind by generating electricity using large wind turbines located on land or at sea and utilising materials such as glass fibre, rare earth metals, copper and steel (Ferrari et al., 2024; GWEC, 2021). The last decade has seen a steady growth in the installed capacity of wind power, which was increasing by 52-64 gigawatts (GW) per year between 2010 and 2020 to reach 743 GW. In 2020, it added another 93 GW, of which 35 GW came fr om offshore wind farms. Today, more than 90 countries are already implementing wind power projects, with 30 of them exceeding 1 GW of installed capacity. In 2017, several European countries and some Latin American states satisfied more than 10% of their electricity needs using wind energy (Magar, V. et al., 2024). The economic benefits of wind power are sig- nificant, especially as turbine size and capacity increase. The installed capacity utilisation rate has risen to 60-64%. This means a return on investment (ROI) of approximately USD 7 million per percentage point, with additional USD 100-300 million per turbine per year (Magar, V. et al., 2024).
Finally, another renewable energy source is green hydrogen. Hydrogen fuel, used as a useful energy source, is produced by electrolysis of water, i.e. splitting H₂O into H₂ and O₂, with the help of renewable energy (IEA, 2021). It requires materials such as platinum, iridium, fluoropolymers, graphite, steel and rare earth metals for its production and use in fuel cells (IRENA, 2020). This alternative zero-carbon energy source is of particular benefit to sectors such as aviation and transport, wh ere electrification is not feasible and GHG emissions are quite high (IRENA, 2020). With large-scale production and competitive prices, green hydrogen can be converted into other energy carriers like ammonia, methanol and methane, and used in fuel cells or direct combustion for power generation (IRENA, 2020). Since the cost of green hydrogen-based electricity depends largely on the cost of its production, lower renewable energy prices will make it cheaper to produce (IRENA, 2020). Reducing the cost of renewable electricity and electrolysis will make green hydrogen more competitive: experts estimate
that investments in electrolysis plants will fall by 40% in the short term and by up to 80% in the long run, offering great opportunities for global investment (IRENA, 2020).
The transition to renewable and more sustainable energy sources is a global imperative in the fight against climate change and in the pursuit of sustainable development. These new technologies are a potential catalyst for progress towards a new platform for sustainable global growth. Recent evidence suggests that proven fossil fuel reserves will only be sufficient to generate electricity for about half a century, according to studies published in late 2020 (Rincón et al., 2024). Given the current state of global energy systems, fossil fuels – due to their availability, fuel infrastructure and competitive costs – account for the majority of the energy we consume. However, the unconditional finiteness of these non-renewable resources and the levels of GHG emissions they generate make modern energy systems extremely unsustainable (Rincón et al., 2024). Therefore, in the long term, maintaining the current level of energy consumption at the expense of fossil fuels is not possible, which makes energy transition inevitable.
The limitations of renewable energy and the cost of the energy transition are determined by a whole range of material, economic, social, political and environmental aspects that need to be taken into account when designing and implementing policies and strategies aimed at moving towards a sustainable energy system. Despite the practical inexhaustibility of solar, wind and green hydrogen, the material resources required to build the technological infrastructure to support renewable energy generation do not have the same renewability properties (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). First, all this infrastructure not only requires significant investment but also depends on fossil fuels for mining, production of steel, cement and silicon, installa- tion, maintenance and decommissioning of equipment at the end of its useful life, which averages 15-20 years (Ferrari et al., 2024). Second, under green transition scenarios, demand for critical metals required for clean technology development will quadruple by 2030, mainly due to increased demand for electric vehicles. This will be happening amidst depleting mineral reserves, rising mining and processing costs, and growing socio-environmental impacts (Ferrari et al., 2024).
On the other hand, the demand for these materials implies the extraction of huge amounts of minerals, most of which are poorly recyclable, such as lithium. So, if some 700 million tonnes of copper have been mined throughout the whole of human history, green growth scenarios suggest that in 22 years’ time, the demand for copper will reach a similar level (Ferrari et al., 2024). In addition, the introduction of renewable energy sources should be accompanied by an increase in the number of energy storage systems in use in order to counter the volatility of energy pro- duction and ensure a real-time balance between supply and demand (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). However, the reserves of critical metals are no longer sufficient to produce the batteries needed to replace fossil fuels in ground transport. Experts say 6-7 times more cobalt, lithium and nickel deposits are needed than the world’s larg est deposits contain today, and that, at 2018 production rates, it will take 72 years to produce enough lithium just to meet new demand in the sector (Ferrari et al., 2024). It should be noted that the cost of materials required to build new infrastruc-
ture as part of the energy transition has increased significantly while the productiv- ity of existing mineral deposits has declined. In addition, geological exploration has not been able to discover new deposits comparable to the existing ones in terms of reserves, which poses additional challenges to the sustainability of the supply chain in the energy sector (Ferrari et al., 2024). Finally, the socio-ecological consequences of the energy transition could trigger the development of crises potentially more severe than those caused by global warming. For example, the intensification of mining to obtain the materials needed for renewable energy production could have devastating effects on biodiversity, threatening ecological integrity on an even more alarming scale than the problems expected to be solved through climate change mitigation (Ferrari et al., 2024).
So, electricity generation from renewable sources such as solar energy and wind power is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty and instability, which is largely offset by the use of fossil fuels. At the same time, despite its significant energy potential, about 90% of the hydrogen used as an energy source is grey hydrogen, i.e. a product of fossil fuel processing (IEA, 2019). In fact, green hydrogen (produced by electrolysis of water) accounts for less than 0.02% of current global production of clean hydrogen (IRENA, 2020). This indicates that, firstly, the pace of the transition to renewable energy is too slow and, secondly, the dominant concept of energy transition, which sees the introduction of clean and renewable tech- nologies as the absolute solution to global warming problem, is a reductionist and simplistic position that lacks a comprehensive understanding of the physical and social constraints inherent in the human-nature relationship and fails to take into account the impact of other key economic, political and social factors (Ferrari et al, 2024; Richardson et al., 2023).
In conclusion, it should be remembered that, according to the dominant paradigm of economic growth, expanding production and increasing consumption are necessary for progress and increased prosperity. This view, based on the belief in unlimited and positive growth, conflicts with the physical limits of nat- ural resources and ecosystems, emphasising the unsustainability of a model that depletes resources faster than they can be regenerated (Richardson et al., 2023). While advances in clean technology and energy efficiency are critical to addressing climate change, they cannot sustain current levels of energy consumption, let alone increase them (Ferrari et al., 2024). The new global growth platform will gradually shih from fossil fuels to the renewable energy sources described above, taking into account the opportunities available in the regional and international context. The effects of climate change are already having a devastating impact, highlighting the urgent need to implement deep systemic changes that go beyond technological solutions and address the economic, political and social causes of unsustainability.
Renewable energy technologies based on sources such as solar energy, wind power and green hydrogen offer promising solutions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, which are the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are hence responsible for global warming — the phenomenon underlying climate change seen by many as the most pressing challenge of the 21st century. However, despite the importance of innovations in this area, they alone will not suffice to overcome the climate crisis. In this sense, the transition to clean and renewable energy sources, combined with a profound systemic transformation that guarantees a truly sustainable development, appears to be the most important condi- tion for reducing the harmful impact on the environment. Therefore, prioritising investment in technologies that can produce clean and renewable energy in a sustainable and affordable manner, along with interdisciplinary action to drive deep systemic change, are fundamental factors in developing a new platform for sustainable global growth.
Among renewable energy technologies, number one is solar energy that converts solar radiation into electricity using photovoltaic (PV) cells or concentrated solar power (CSP) systems (Zhang et al., 2016). Silicon, copper, cobalt, aluminium, cadmium and lithium are generally required for the production of photovoltaic cells (Rincón et al., 2024). Using this technology to generate useful energy has contributed in recent years to a reduction in GHG emissions by about 96% compared to coal, with global installed capacity increasing by a factor of about 15 between 2010 and 2022 (IPCC, 2022; IRENA, 2023). In addition, the normalised cost of electricity decreased by 85 % between 2010 and 2020. And PV generation prices are predicted to continue declining in the coming years (IRENA, 2021).
Another type of alternative energy is wind power, which harnesses the kinetic energy of the wind by generating electricity using large wind turbines located on land or at sea and utilising materials such as glass fibre, rare earth metals, copper and steel (Ferrari et al., 2024; GWEC, 2021). The last decade has seen a steady growth in the installed capacity of wind power, which was increasing by 52-64 gigawatts (GW) per year between 2010 and 2020 to reach 743 GW. In 2020, it added another 93 GW, of which 35 GW came fr om offshore wind farms. Today, more than 90 countries are already implementing wind power projects, with 30 of them exceeding 1 GW of installed capacity. In 2017, several European countries and some Latin American states satisfied more than 10% of their electricity needs using wind energy (Magar, V. et al., 2024). The economic benefits of wind power are sig- nificant, especially as turbine size and capacity increase. The installed capacity utilisation rate has risen to 60-64%. This means a return on investment (ROI) of approximately USD 7 million per percentage point, with additional USD 100-300 million per turbine per year (Magar, V. et al., 2024).
Finally, another renewable energy source is green hydrogen. Hydrogen fuel, used as a useful energy source, is produced by electrolysis of water, i.e. splitting H₂O into H₂ and O₂, with the help of renewable energy (IEA, 2021). It requires materials such as platinum, iridium, fluoropolymers, graphite, steel and rare earth metals for its production and use in fuel cells (IRENA, 2020). This alternative zero-carbon energy source is of particular benefit to sectors such as aviation and transport, wh ere electrification is not feasible and GHG emissions are quite high (IRENA, 2020). With large-scale production and competitive prices, green hydrogen can be converted into other energy carriers like ammonia, methanol and methane, and used in fuel cells or direct combustion for power generation (IRENA, 2020). Since the cost of green hydrogen-based electricity depends largely on the cost of its production, lower renewable energy prices will make it cheaper to produce (IRENA, 2020). Reducing the cost of renewable electricity and electrolysis will make green hydrogen more competitive: experts estimate
that investments in electrolysis plants will fall by 40% in the short term and by up to 80% in the long run, offering great opportunities for global investment (IRENA, 2020).
The transition to renewable and more sustainable energy sources is a global imperative in the fight against climate change and in the pursuit of sustainable development. These new technologies are a potential catalyst for progress towards a new platform for sustainable global growth. Recent evidence suggests that proven fossil fuel reserves will only be sufficient to generate electricity for about half a century, according to studies published in late 2020 (Rincón et al., 2024). Given the current state of global energy systems, fossil fuels – due to their availability, fuel infrastructure and competitive costs – account for the majority of the energy we consume. However, the unconditional finiteness of these non-renewable resources and the levels of GHG emissions they generate make modern energy systems extremely unsustainable (Rincón et al., 2024). Therefore, in the long term, maintaining the current level of energy consumption at the expense of fossil fuels is not possible, which makes energy transition inevitable.
The limitations of renewable energy and the cost of the energy transition are determined by a whole range of material, economic, social, political and environmental aspects that need to be taken into account when designing and implementing policies and strategies aimed at moving towards a sustainable energy system. Despite the practical inexhaustibility of solar, wind and green hydrogen, the material resources required to build the technological infrastructure to support renewable energy generation do not have the same renewability properties (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). First, all this infrastructure not only requires significant investment but also depends on fossil fuels for mining, production of steel, cement and silicon, installa- tion, maintenance and decommissioning of equipment at the end of its useful life, which averages 15-20 years (Ferrari et al., 2024). Second, under green transition scenarios, demand for critical metals required for clean technology development will quadruple by 2030, mainly due to increased demand for electric vehicles. This will be happening amidst depleting mineral reserves, rising mining and processing costs, and growing socio-environmental impacts (Ferrari et al., 2024).
On the other hand, the demand for these materials implies the extraction of huge amounts of minerals, most of which are poorly recyclable, such as lithium. So, if some 700 million tonnes of copper have been mined throughout the whole of human history, green growth scenarios suggest that in 22 years’ time, the demand for copper will reach a similar level (Ferrari et al., 2024). In addition, the introduction of renewable energy sources should be accompanied by an increase in the number of energy storage systems in use in order to counter the volatility of energy pro- duction and ensure a real-time balance between supply and demand (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). However, the reserves of critical metals are no longer sufficient to produce the batteries needed to replace fossil fuels in ground transport. Experts say 6-7 times more cobalt, lithium and nickel deposits are needed than the world’s larg est deposits contain today, and that, at 2018 production rates, it will take 72 years to produce enough lithium just to meet new demand in the sector (Ferrari et al., 2024). It should be noted that the cost of materials required to build new infrastruc-
ture as part of the energy transition has increased significantly while the productiv- ity of existing mineral deposits has declined. In addition, geological exploration has not been able to discover new deposits comparable to the existing ones in terms of reserves, which poses additional challenges to the sustainability of the supply chain in the energy sector (Ferrari et al., 2024). Finally, the socio-ecological consequences of the energy transition could trigger the development of crises potentially more severe than those caused by global warming. For example, the intensification of mining to obtain the materials needed for renewable energy production could have devastating effects on biodiversity, threatening ecological integrity on an even more alarming scale than the problems expected to be solved through climate change mitigation (Ferrari et al., 2024).
So, electricity generation from renewable sources such as solar energy and wind power is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty and instability, which is largely offset by the use of fossil fuels. At the same time, despite its significant energy potential, about 90% of the hydrogen used as an energy source is grey hydrogen, i.e. a product of fossil fuel processing (IEA, 2019). In fact, green hydrogen (produced by electrolysis of water) accounts for less than 0.02% of current global production of clean hydrogen (IRENA, 2020). This indicates that, firstly, the pace of the transition to renewable energy is too slow and, secondly, the dominant concept of energy transition, which sees the introduction of clean and renewable tech- nologies as the absolute solution to global warming problem, is a reductionist and simplistic position that lacks a comprehensive understanding of the physical and social constraints inherent in the human-nature relationship and fails to take into account the impact of other key economic, political and social factors (Ferrari et al, 2024; Richardson et al., 2023).
In conclusion, it should be remembered that, according to the dominant paradigm of economic growth, expanding production and increasing consumption are necessary for progress and increased prosperity. This view, based on the belief in unlimited and positive growth, conflicts with the physical limits of nat- ural resources and ecosystems, emphasising the unsustainability of a model that depletes resources faster than they can be regenerated (Richardson et al., 2023). While advances in clean technology and energy efficiency are critical to addressing climate change, they cannot sustain current levels of energy consumption, let alone increase them (Ferrari et al., 2024). The new global growth platform will gradually shih from fossil fuels to the renewable energy sources described above, taking into account the opportunities available in the regional and international context. The effects of climate change are already having a devastating impact, highlighting the urgent need to implement deep systemic changes that go beyond technological solutions and address the economic, political and social causes of unsustainability.
El vector temático de este ensayo es la inversión en tecnología para proveer energía accesible y sostenible. Analizando el papel de las nuevas tecnologías de energía renovable como uno de los pilares fundamentales para el crecimiento y desarrollo global sostenible, pero también destacando la necesidad de un cambio sistémico profundo para abordar la crisis del cambio climático de manera efectiva.
Las tecnologías de energía renovable, como la solar, la eólica y el hidrógeno verde, se alzan como soluciones prometedoras para reducir la dependencia de los combustibles fósiles (CF), principales responsables de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y, por ende, del calentamiento global, un fenómeno central del cambio climático, considerado por muchos el desafío más urgente del siglo XXI. Sin embargo, aunque estas innovaciones resultan esenciales, no son suficientes por sí solas para superar la crisis climática. En este sentido, la transición energética hacia fuentes de energía limpia y renovable se presenta como un pilar esencial para mitigar el impacto ambiental, en conjunto con transformaciones sistémicas profundas que garanticen un desarrollo verdaderamente sostenible. Por lo tanto, la priorización de inversiones en dichas tecnologías que pueden proveer energía limpia y renovable de manera sostenible y accesible, así como el impulso de acciones multidisciplinarias para realizar cambios sistémicos profundos son fundamentales para el desarrollo de la nueva plataforma para el crecimiento global sostenible.
Analizando las tecnologías de energía renovable encontramos en primer lugar, la energía solar, la cual convierte la radiación del sol en electricidad mediante celdas o células fotovoltaicas (PV) o sistemas de concentración solar térmica (CSP) (Zhang et al., 2016). En el caso del empleo de tecnologías PV, los insumos necesarios para su producción son, a grandes rasgos, silicio, cobre, cobalto, aluminio, cadmio y litio (Rincón et al., 2024). El aprovechamiento de esta tecnología al producir energía útil ha tenido un impacto en la reducción de emisiones de GEI en los últimos años de aproximadamente un 96% en comparación con el carbón, con un incremento de aproximadamente 15 veces en la capacidad instalada global entre 2010 y 2022 (IPCC, 2022; IRENA, 2023). Además, los costos nivelados de energía bajaron un 85% entre 2010-2020 con pronósticos de una mayor reducción de precios en la producción de PV en los próximos años (IRENA, 2021).
En segundo lugar, la energía eólica aprovecha la energía cinética del viento mediante grandes turbinas en tierra o en mar para generar electricidad utilizando insumos como fibra de vidrio, tierras raras, cobre y acero (Ferrari et al., 2024; GWEC, 2021). Su crecimiento ha sido notable, con una capacidad instalada que aumentó entre 52 y 64 gigavatios (GW) anuales de 2010 a 2020, alcanzando 743 GW. En 2020, se añadieron 93 GW, incluyendo 35 GW en instalaciones marinas, y más de 90 países cuentan con proyectos eólicos, 30 de los cuales superan 1 GW de capacidad. Además, en 2017, varios países europeos y algunas naciones latinoamericanas generaron más del 10% de su electricidad a partir del viento (Magar, V. et al., 2024). Los beneficios económicos son significativos, especialmente con el aumento del tamaño y la eficiencia de las turbinas. El factor de planta ha incrementado hasta un 60-64%, lo que representa un retorno de inversión (ROI) de aproximadamente 7 millones de dólares (MMUSD) por cada punto porcentual, sumando entre 100 y 300 MMUSD adicionales por turbina (Magar, V. et al., 2024).
Por último, el hidrógeno verde es aquel hidrógeno producido como fuente de energía útil mediante electrólisis para la separación de H₂O en H₂ y O₂ utilizando electricidad de fuentes renovables (IEA, 2021). Su producción y uso en celdas de combustible requieren insumos como platino, iridio, fluoropolímeros, grafito, acero y tierras raras (IRENA, 2020). Esta alternativa libre de emisiones beneficia especialmente sectores de difícil electrificación, como la aviación y el transporte, debido a sus altas emisiones de GEI. (IRENA, 2020). A gran escala y con costos competitivos, el hidrógeno verde puede transformarse en otros portadores energéticos como amoníaco, metanol y metano, y utilizarse en celdas de combustible o combustión directa para generar electricidad (IRENA, 2020). Dado que el costo de la electricidad representa la mayor parte del gasto en la producción de hidrógeno verde, la reducción de los precios de las energías renovables contribuirá a cerrar esta brecha (IRENA, 2020). Asimismo, La reducción de costos de electricidad renovable y electrólisis es clave para su competitividad, con estimaciones que proyectan disminuciones del 40% a corto plazo y hasta el 80% a largo plazo en inversiones para plantas de electrólisis, lo que representa una gran oportunidad de inversión global (IRENA, 2020).
La transición energética hacia fuentes más sostenibles y renovables es un imperativo global en la lucha contra el cambio climático y la búsqueda de la sostenibilidad. Estas tecnologías emergentes se presentan como catalizadores de progreso prometedores para la generación de una nueva plataforma de crecimiento global sostenible. Los datos recientes nos indican que las reservas comprobadas de fuentes fósiles, según estudios de finales de 2020, solo podrían abastecer energía por aproximadamente medio siglo (Rincón et al., 2024). Con respecto al estado actual de los sistemas energéticos globales, los CF representan la mayoría de la energía que consumimos debido a su disponibilidad, infraestructura establecida y costos competitivos. No obstante, la finitud inherente de estos recursos no renovables y sus emisiones de GEI hacen que los sistemas energéticos actuales sean insostenibles (Rincón et al., 2024). En consecuencia, mantener el nivel actual de consumo energético resulta inviable a largo plazo y, por tanto, vuelve inevitable esta transición.
Sin embargo, los límites de las fuentes renovables y los costos de la transición energética abarcan una variedad de aspectos materiales, económicos, sociales, políticos y ambientales que deben considerarse en el diseño e implementación de políticas y estrategias para avanzar hacia un sistema energético sostenible. Aunque la radiación solar, la energía eólica y el hidrogeno verde son virtualmente inagotables, los recursos materiales requeridos para fabricar la infraestructura tecnológica que las aprovecha no comparten esta característica renovable (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). En primer lugar, la infraestructura renovable, además de representar una gran asignación de inversiones, depende de CF para la minería, fabricación de acero, cemento y silicio, instalación, mantenimiento y desmantelamiento pasada su vida útil que en promedio requiere ser reconstruida cada 15-20 años (Ferrari et al., 2024). En segundo lugar, la demanda de minerales críticos para tecnologías limpias, en escenarios de transición verde, se cuadruplicarán para 2030, especialmente debido al incremento en la demanda de vehículos eléctricos. Esto ocurre en un contexto de menor concentración de los depósitos de minerales, mayores costos de minería y refinado, y crecientes impactos socioambientales (Ferrari et al., 2024).
Por otro lado, estos requerimientos materiales implican la extracción de cantidades enormes de minerales, los cuales en su mayoría son muy poco reciclados, como el litio. Por ejemplo, mientras que la humanidad ha extraído aproximadamente 700 millones de toneladas de cobre a lo largo de su historia, los escenarios de "crecimiento verde" proyectan la necesidad de extraer esa misma cantidad en solo 22 años (Ferrari et al., 2024). Además, la adopción de energías renovables debe acompañarse de una expansión en soluciones de almacenamiento eléctrico para contrarrestar la variabilidad en su producción y garantizar un equilibrio entre oferta y demanda en tiempo real (Gómez & Galindo, 2024). Sin embargo, no hay suficientes reservas de minerales críticos sólo para las baterías necesarias para sustituir los CF en el transporte terrestre. Se estima que se requeriría descubrir entre 6 y 7 veces los depósitos de cobalto, litio y níquel más grandes del mundo, y, con una tasa de extracción como la de 2018, tardaríamos 72 años para extraer el litio necesario sólo para cubrir la nueva demanda de este sector (Ferrari et al., 2024).
Es crucial destacar que los costos de los materiales necesarios para la infraestructura requerida en la transición energética han aumentado significativamente, mientras que la productividad de los yacimientos minerales existentes ha disminuido. Además, la exploración minera no ha logrado descubrir nuevos depósitos de magnitud comparable a los actuales, lo que plantea desafíos adicionales para la sostenibilidad de la cadena de suministro en el sector energético (Ferrari et al., 2024). Por último, el impacto socioambiental de la transición energética podría desencadenar crisis de una gravedad potencialmente mayor que las provocadas por el calentamiento global. Por ejemplo, la intensificación de la minería necesaria para obtener los materiales necesarios en la producción de energías renovables podría tener consecuencias devastadoras para la biodiversidad, amenazando la integridad ecológica en una escala incluso más alarmante que los problemas que se pretenden resolver con la mitigación del cambio climático (Ferrari et al., 2024).
Entonces, las energías solar y eólica son altamente irregulares e intermitentes en su suministro, lo cual se compensa mayoritariamente con el uso de CF. Al mismo tiempo, aunque el hidrógeno tiene un potencial significativo, aproximadamente el 90% del hidrógeno producido como fuente de energía es hidrógeno gris, o sea que es producto de CF (IEA, 2019). De hecho, el hidrógeno verde (producido mediante electrólisis de agua) contribuyó con menos del 0.02% de la producción global actual de hidrógeno puro (IRENA, 2020). Esto demuestra que, primero, el ritmo de transición hacia fuentes de energía renovable es demasiado lento y, segundo, que la narrativa dominante de la transición energética, centrada en la implementación de tecnologías limpias y renovables como solución absoluta al calentamiento global, representa una perspectiva reduccionista y simplista que carece de la comprensión integral de los límites físicos y sociales inherentes a la relación entre el ser humano y la naturaleza, ni considera la influencia de otros factores clave de índole económica, política y social que resultan fundamentales para impulsar una transformación sistémica profunda y sostenible (Ferrari et al., 2024; Richardson et al., 2023).
En conclusión, el paradigma dominante del crecimiento económico sostiene que la expansión productiva y el aumento del consumo son esenciales para el progreso y el bienestar. Esta visión, impulsada por la creencia en un crecimiento ilimitado y beneficioso, choca con los límites físicos de los recursos naturales y los sistemas ecológicos, evidenciando la insostenibilidad de un modelo que agota los recursos más rápido de lo que pueden regenerarse (Richardson et al., 2023). Aunque los avances en tecnologías limpias y eficiencia energética son cruciales para enfrentar el cambio climático, son incapaces de mantener el nivel actual de consumo energético y aún menos de incrementarlo (Ferrari et al., 2024). La nueva plataforma de crecimiento global se alejará gradualmente de los CF utilizando un mix de las tecnologías de energía renovable presentadas aquí considerando las oportunidades en un contexto local y global. Las consecuencias del cambio climático ya muestran consecuencias devastadoras, poniendo en evidencia la urgencia de un cambio sistémico profundo que trascienda las soluciones tecnológicas y aborde las raíces económicas, políticas y sociales de la insostenibilidad.
Читать весь текст
Социальные сети Instagram и Facebook запрещены в РФ. Решением суда от 21.03.2022 компания Meta признана экстремистской организацией на территории Российской Федерации.
