Foresight of Technology and the Necessities of Shaping the Future

Opinion polls conducted among technology experts at the end of last year (2024) revealed that four technologies will lead the world and shape the features of economic development and social life over the coming decade. These are: artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain, and synthetic biology. The last technology marks a turning point; the other technologies seem self-evident with the rise of AI, data innovations, and computing, but the inclusion of synthetic biology among the leading emerging technologies reflects the emergence of new trends within the boundaries of the future of technology and innovation. This is evidenced by the continuous successes recently achieved by scientific companies based on synthetic biology, making it one of the fastest-growing innovations and one of the most well-funded in the field of commercial biotechnology. So, is it time to adopt technological foresight as a necessary tool in shaping the future of investment in technological development? To begin with, let us pause at the most important milestones in the emergence of technological foresight within strategic planning circles and decision-making in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. We find that Japan took the initiative in the 1970s to establish an institutional system for analyzing opportunities in science, technology, and innovation at the national level. It was then known as the "Technology Foresight Program", and its aim was to enhance Japan's economic and industrial position by shifting fr om merely imitating Western innovations to becoming a leading economy – particularly in employing technological innovations in electronics and industries related to advanced technologies. The Future Foresight Program had a positive impact on the formulation of long-term industrial policies and in generating collective awareness of the possibilities that knowledge and innovation offer in strengthening the position of Japanese industry and giving it innovative leadership on the international level. Indeed, the Japanese experience was replicated in the 1980s, and ambitious national programs were developed and launched in Canada and many European countries whose economies at the time were considered to be lagging behind the United States, which was at the forefront of technological development. Since the late 1990s, the term technology foresight has been used to refer to a set of tools and methodologies related to planning and future foresight. These are employed to support decision-making processes regarding the priorities of scientific knowledge development and the seizing of technological opportunities. If we return to the four technologies that will guide future innovations, and take synthetic biology as an example, we find that keeping pace with this technology and its numerous applications in the sectors of the bio-based economy requires the presence of effective frameworks. These frameworks are needed to support the shift in focus and strategic attention toward building scientific capacities in engineering disciplines and fields of biotechnology, funding research and development efforts related to knowledge and applied technology, enhancing the readiness of productive and industrial sectors, and increasing their capacity to absorb the outputs of innovation in synthetic and molecular biology. Furthermore, it is necessary to direct investment into this area as a priority when choosing among a number of other technological options. Herein lies the importance of developing and launching technology foresight programs to support national innovation systems. Rapid technological changes have transformed many of the traditional roles of national foresight programs, while anticipating the future of technological trends has become accessible through the efforts of the international scientific community. However, a set of important roles still remain that must be undertaken by national technology foresight programs. Practically speaking, strategic foresight in technology is an integral part of futures studies and is therefore considered one of the most important accelerators in building the comparative advantage of national innovation systems. The outcomes of foresight can contribute to identifying core weaknesses in the performance of the innovation system, enabling its strengths, building parallel pathways to keep up with global scientific developments, and enhancing performance while maintaining local competitive advantages. This ensures a balanced transformation in the employment of leading technologies, without resorting to mere imitation of best practices. Likewise, the significant advancement in strategic foresight methodologies has amplified the potential to benefit from inputs, indicators, and analyses that can provide deeper insight into future trends. This has reinforced the importance of launching foresight programs that create national strengths within innovation systems by aligning investment in these systems with the broader national agenda. In the context of economic growth that seeks to balance the external market pull forces with the internal push forces driven by technological innovations resulting from the continuous development efforts of knowledge and technology-producing institutions, the primary role of national foresight programs becomes clear. It is to define long-term priorities for research, development, and innovation, and to identify innovative technologies that could shape the future economy. Although strategic foresight methodologies are fundamentally predictive and analytical, their outcomes are among the most crucial tools for guiding critical decision-making processes. With the integration of quantitative methods based on big data, as well as modeling and simulation tools, it is now possible to analyze the number of scientific patents, publications, and startups focusing on specific technologies, in addition to expert opinions, in order to deepen the comprehensive understanding of strategic opportunities at the national and regional levels. Technology foresight is the most important part of producing and developing critical technologies to support development efforts, shape policies in education, training, and manufacturing, and support national economic sectors through broader pathways beyond merely predicting major trends or leading innovations. It involves identifying incremental technological developments that can address the challenges of strategic agendas and meet both current and future needs. This necessitates the existence of national programs to guide the technology foresight process, wh ere the primary aim is not simply to benefit from innovative technologies to achieve comparative advantage as an end in itself. Rather, its core objectives extend to maintaining a strategic focus on long-term investment in scientific research, technological development, and innovation. It is also about identifying areas in which resources should not be wasted through investment. Therefore, technology foresight has become more important than ever, and technological advancement is now seen as a strategic process that can be shaped through sound and balanced planning, not merely the result of unpredictable efforts by geniuses in science and technology.