WHAT CLIMATE-ENERGY POLICY COUPLE FOR AFRICA? A SOVEREIGNTY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PROPOSAL FOR 21ST CENTURY'S AFRICA

Introduction

Africa faces a critical challenge: how to achieve energy sovereignty and industrialization while navigating international climate and energy agendas that marginalize its needs? It is risky to answer that question if one has not set on a scientific basis, the guiding principles for the climate-energy couple in Africa.

A development-oriented energy policy prioritizes economic growth, industrialization, and infrastructure expansion, rather than following the decarbonization framework that is the focus of the international agenda which, by the way, ignores Africa’s input. Africa’s voice is not heard. That ignorance hinders Africa’s progress.

A warning: the expression “economic growth” used in this essay, does not have its usual meaning. Economic growth commonly means GDP growth. For us, economic growth refers to a constrained optimization problem that can be stated as follows: Maximize a quantity B (like Bonth) under the constraint of minimizing a quantity I (like Illth). B and I are aggregates we defined in a previous essay.

This essay describes the principles of the climate-energy policy we recommend for Africa in the 21^st century. That policy highlights energy sources diversification, public investments in infrastructure, and the creation and financing, controlled by Africans, of national and pan-African public research institutions dedicated to the climate-energy couple.

1. Energy Demand Assessment Methodology

1.1. Africa: Energy Deficit and Growing Demand

Per capita energy consumption in Africa is the lowest in the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2022) reports that the continent represents only 4% of global energy demand while it hosts 17% of the world's population. By 2050, the African population is expected to reach 2.5 billion inhabitants (UN, 2022), as urbanization and industrialization further increase the energy demand. Africa's population explosion in the century leading to 2050 is unprecedented in human history. And Africa's population will keep growing until the end of the 21^st century. The explosion requires a climate-energy couple policy unseen in any continent in the world. Africans must invent, almost fr om scratch.

Today, two figures and one industrial fact show the magnitude of energy and climate challenges Africa faces. Electricity access: over 600 million Africans lack electricity, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa (IEA, 2022). Clean cooking: Almost 900 million people depend on traditional biomass, which leads to serious impacts on health and the environment (WHO, 2021). Industrial energy needs: Limited access to electricity in Africa hinders economic growth, industrialization, and job creation.

1.2. How is Energy Demand measured?

Energy demand is usually assessed using models that integrate variables such as Population growth (UN, 2022); Urbanization rate (IEA, 2021); Industrialization and GDP growth (World Bank, 2022); Trends in energy consumption per capita (Smil, 2017); Technological progress in energy efficiency (BP, 2021).

Globally recognized methodologies include: The Kaya identity, which decomposes energy demand into population, GDP per capita, energy intensity and carbon intensity (Kaya and Yokoburi, 1997); The LEAP model (Long-term Planning of energy alternatives), widely used in developing countries to project future energy demand according to different political scenarios (Heaps, 2016); The MARKAL/TIMES model, used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and various governments to evaluate the transitions of the energy system (Loulou et al., 2005).

1.3. Reference for the Evaluation of Energy Demand

The benchmark for assessing energy demand varies fr om region to region. In highly industrialized countries, the norm is about 10,000 to 15,000 kWh per capita per year (USA, Europe). In middle-income countries such as China, this is about 5,000 kWh per capita. Africa is currently lagging far behind, with an average of 800 kWh per capita, highlighting its massive energy deficit (IEA, 2022).

To assess the true energy needs of Africa, researchers must quantify the toxicity of “mal-energy” in that continent. Mal-energy refers to harmful energy consumption practices, which include traditional use of biomass (wood, charcoal) that causes deforestation and respiratory diseases; illegal electrical, oil, and gas connections that can cause arson and death. There are also dangerous power grid infrastructures, with frequent power outages which among others kill or destroy food and goods in refrigerators and freezers.

A realistic benchmark for Africa should be at least 3,000 to 5,000 kWh per capita by 2050 to support economic transformation, industrial growth and widespread electrification.

2. Principles for an African Development-oriented Energy Policy

2.1. Diversified Energy Mix

A balanced approach is crucial to ensure Africa's energy security. Unlike many Western countries that advocate for a rapid transition to renewable energies, Africa must keep consuming fossil fuels, while integrating multiple energy sources, including:

Natural gas: Africa holds 600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves (BP, 2021), which can provide cheap and reliable energy.

Hydropower: The Grand Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has the potential to generate 40 GW—enough to power a large part of Africa.

Solar and Wind: Africa has the highest solar potential in the world, but the installed capacity remains low.

2.2. Infrastructure investments

The lack of modern electricity networks in Africa is a major obstacle to economic development. A development-oriented energy policy must focus on:

Expansion of national networks: Africa only has access to electricity at 50%, compared to 99% in the United States and China (World Bank, 2022).

Regional energy integration: Initiatives such as the West African Energy Pool (WAPP) and the East African Energy Pool (EAPP) should be expanded to reduce energy costs and improve reliability.

Smart Grids: Investing in digital infrastructure will increase energy efficiency and reduce electricity theft.

3. Build and Finance African Energy Independently

A major weakness of the African energy sector is its lack of research and development (R&D). Most African countries rely on foreign expertise, instead of investing in local energy knowledge. To fix that situation, Africa must create national and Pan-African Public Institutions of Energy Research.

4. Three Climate Policy Principles for Africa

Climate change poses an existential threat to Africa, a continent that contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions yet endures its devastating impacts. Prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, coastal deterioration are among the damages climate change is already inflicting on Africans and their environment. Africa's vulnerability underscores the urgent need for tailored climate policies. Below, we outline critical policy principles. Combined, they aim to address Africa’s unique challenges, ensure that Africa’s climate policy serves its people, not foreign interests, and secure for Africa an equitable participation in the global climate agenda.

4.1 Prioritize Climate Adaptation Over Emissions Reduction

Africa’s immediate climate challenge lies in adapting to the already unavoidable impacts of climate change. Unlike industrialized nations, wh ere emissions reduction is the primary focus, Africa must prioritize adaptation to safeguard livelihoods, ecosystems, and economies. Investing in climate-resilient agriculture is a cornerstone of this approach. For example, smallholder farmers, who produce up to 80% of Africa’s food, are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks (FAO, 2021). Techniques such as drought-resistant crops, agroforestry, and sustainable irrigation systems can enhance food security. For instance, in Kenya, the adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties has increased yields by 20-30% during dry seasons (CIMMYT, 2020).

Water management is another critical area. With over 40% of Africa’s population facing water scarcity, innovative solutions like rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge systems are essential (UNEP, 2022). Ethiopia’s success in restoring degraded watersheds through community-led initiatives demonstrates the potential of localized adaptation strategies.

Developing early warning systems for extreme weather events is equally vital. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), less than 30% of African countries have robust early warning systems, leaving millions exposed to climate-induced disasters (WMO, 2021). Strengthening these systems can save lives and reduce economic losses. For example, Mozambique’s investment in cyclone early warning systems has significantly reduced casualties during recent storms.

4.2 Regulate Carbon Markets to Benefit Africa

Carbon markets present a unique opportunity for Africa to leverage its vast natural resources for climate action and economic development. However, the current global carbon trading landscape often sidelines African nations. Creating African-led carbon trading mechanisms is crucial to ensuring that the continent reaps the benefits of its carbon sinks. Africa is home to the Congo Basin, the world’s second-largest rainforest, which sequesters approximately 1.2 billion tons of carbon annually (WRI, 2021). By establishing regional carbon markets, African nations can monetize these ecosystems while promoting sustainable development.

Land sovereignty protections must accompany these efforts to prevent foreign land grabs. In recent years, there has been a surge in “carbon colonialism,” wh ere foreign entities acquire large tracts of African land for carbon offset projects, often displacing local communities (Oxfam, 2022). Robust legal frameworks are needed to safeguard land rights and ensure that carbon revenues benefit local populations. For instance, Liberia’s Community Rights Law grants indigenous communities’ ownership of forest resources, setting a precedent for equitable carbon market participation.

4.3 Demand Climate Justice in Global Forums

Africa’s historical contribution to global emissions is minimal, yet the continent faces disproportionate climate impacts. This inequity underscores the need for climate justice in international negotiations. African nations must push for climate debt relief, recognizing the historical responsibility of industrialized nations for the climate crisis. The concept of climate debt, which includes both emissions debt and adaptation debt, provides a moral and financial basis for reparations (Roberts & Parks, 2009). For example, the African Group of Negotiators has consistently called for developed countries to honor their commitment to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance, a promise that remains unfulfilled (UNFCCC, 2021).

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) has approved over $1 billion for African projects, but this is a fraction of the estimated $50 billion needed annually for adaptation alone (GCF, 2022). African leaders must leverage global forums like the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP) to demand fairer financing mechanisms.

Conclusion

Africa must pay sharp attention to her climate-energy couple policy. Couple means that any African energy policy must be conceived within the framework of climate challenges and vice versa. Africa’s energy and climate future can be sovereign only if it is centered on development and independent of the climatic constraints foreign interests impose. That development requires African leaders’, African communities’, Global Africans’ collective action, political will, and unwavering commitment in the spirit or renewed Pan-Africanism.