Investments in environment

Let us discuss some positive implications of the global climate change.

Introduction

Global climate change is one of the biggest problems of our time. Its impact on the environment, society and economy can be already seen and felt and occa­sionally cause fear and panic. We can even hear statements like: “Now the planet is no longer warming up, it’s boiling!” However irresponsible or unrealistic, such outbursts of alarm only make it harder to understand with unbiased clarity what is really happening as well as to respond to climate change with sensible solutions. There are many different views on the causes of and human contribution to climate change. Conventional models assume a direct correlation between growing CO₂ levels and global warming. The rising content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is usually attributed to industrial production which has been growing steadily since the middle of the nineteenth century.

This narrative has been exploited to build a colossal global industry and invest billions of dollars into combating climate change. The effect, though, has been minimal so far as temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ are still on the rise. There are a number of reasons for the upward change in global temperatures and CO₂ levels, including natural causes, such as: • solar activity, • volcanic activity,

• changes in the Earth’s orbital movement, • ocean water circulation, and other factors.

Historically, the predominant climate on Earth was rather warm. Such hot periods account for about 80-90% of the planet’s history. For example, the aver­age temperature in the Cretaceous, a period from 145 to 65 million years ago, was approximately 8-9°C above today’s benchmark, whereas CO₂ levels were 3 to 4 times higher and the Earth’s poles were completely free of ice. Nevertheless, this did not lead to any global climate catastrophe. Wildlife and vegetation flourished and biomass production was enormous. For the global climate, it makes no difference whether rising CO₂ and related temperature increases are the result of volcanic activity, changes in the Earth’s orbit, solar activity or industrial CO2 emissions. Fluctuations in temperature and CO₂ concentration throughout the history of the Earth are part of the natural process, sort of a breathing cycle of the planet.

Hypothesis

Global climate change is a natural part of Earth history. Most of the time, the planet was dominated by a warm climate and Earth was often ice-free. So, it would seem that fighting and trying to reverse global climate change with questionable methods and humongous expenditure of resources makes little sense. Negative and alarmist news are totally unhelpful. It would be much wiser to think ahead and be proactive. Counterintuitively, climate change may also have its upsides that could be useful for us.

Let us consider two factors to identify potential positive effects of climate change and ways of leveraging them to shape a better future for humanity.

Climate Change and CO₂

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the second most important greenhouse gas after water vapor and is considered to be the primary cause of climate change. At the same time, CO2 is an essential resource for all the plant life on Earth. All the green plants, algae and plankton need CO2 for photosynthesis to produce carbohydrates and, consequently, organic materials. Ultimately, our entire diet depends on plant photosynthesis. Besides, the same process generates oxygen, which is so vital for us. At present, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 400 ppm. How­ever, its optimal concentration that maximizes the effectiveness of photosynthe­sis is three times higher! This is why the CO2 level in greenhouses is deliberately raised to 1200 ppm as this considerably increases plant productivity. The current CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere is generally too low for supporting the most effective photosynthesis. It means that the planet’s vegetation is actually “starved” like a human being who receives only a fraction of the normal daily intake of calories.

It would be fair to assume that an increase in the atmospheric CO₂ content up to the ideal photosynthesis level would be a powerful boost to the productivity of agriculture, forestry and gardening. In fact, even between 1982 and 2009, the greening of the Earth increased by up to 50%. Notably, 70% of this global growth in green vegetation cover was driven by the fertilization effect of CO₂ contained in the atmosphere (Zhu, Z. et al., 2016; Nature, Climate Change, Vol. 6).

Hence, more benefits - as increased agricultural productivity would help to cut down on fertilizers that pose a threat to ground water. It would also allow peo­ple to expand organic and environmentally-friendly cultivation of foods that are healthier and better quality for human diet.

So how can we deal with CO₂ in a positive way?

There is no need to be afraid of CO₂. This gas is neither toxic, nor a natural hazard. It is a natural gas which is essential to life as food for plants. CO₂ is not an enemy and we do not need to fight it, wasting millions of dollars on its cap­ture and underground storage. Higher CO₂ concentrations can help us to make the world greener and healthier. We can support nature by implementing large-scale reforestation programs as well as by creating more parks and green spaces in cities. More CO₂ and more green vegetation can foster a beneficial bond and symbiosis, significantly improving the human habitat.

Climate Change and the Weather

People feel that climate is changing primarily due to unstable weather condi­tions. Over the last 150 years, Europeans have got used to a relatively established seasonal cycle with snowy and frosty winters and mild warm summers. Now, how­ever, people notice that snow is becoming increasingly scarce in winter, while sum­mer is getting hotter. They find this change unsettling. In the past, Europe already witnessed similar change, but in reverse, that started in the early 14^th century when the climate in Europe cooled rapidly, marking the beginning of the so-called Lit­tle Ice Age, which lasted till the middle of the 19^th century. How did people react back then? When it got colder at the beginning of this regional cooling, people’s response was quick and simple: they started building bigger stoves and wearing warmer clothes.

Today, again, we have to deal with climate change, which is partially responsi­ble for natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes. But such disasters are also part of the Earth’s history. They have always accompanied climate shifts and are in no way unique to our times.

Today we are trying to resort to risky, unsafe and expensive measures to stop and reverse climate change. However, all those billions of dollars sunk into projects to combat climate change so far have not yielded any tangible results. Maybe this money could have been put to better use, say, in infrastructure projects. The world’s current population totals over 8 billion people who are most densely packed in large areas along rivers and ocean coasts. For decades, riverbanks have been pro­gressively encased in concrete without the much-needed engineered floodplains with dykes and flood barriers. This is why there are so many human casualties and material damage to buildings during flood disasters.

Therefore, steps should be taken to remediate coastal areas and create con­trolled flooding areas. At the same time, cities need to expand their drainage and sewerage systems. This would cost much less than cleanup operations after nat­ural disasters, not to mention the cost of human suffering that could be avoided. One successful example is Japan’s G-Cans project (Shutoken Gaikaku Hosuiro or G-Cans), the world’s largest underground floodwater diversion facility located north of Tokyo. At the cost of $2 billion, this flood defense system makes a lot more economic and practical sense than multiple dubious investments in unpre­dictable climate change management.

Rising temperatures will certainly result in more abundant precipitation in the future. This might be a blessing for arid and semi-arid regions of the planet. Combined with the carbon fertilization effect produced by atmospheric CO2, this could help to reclaim barren landscapes and restore agriculture, opening new pros­pects for local communities in the future. Thus, increased precipitation can have its upsides. This was exactly the case of a heavy rainfall in northwestern Sahara in September 2024 when dried-up lakes and riverbeds filled with water and the desert burst with lush vegetation incredibly quickly.

Global warming could also benefit the northern regions of our planet. Higher temperatures translate into milder winters and shorter heating seasons, helping to lower energy consumption for heating. This is good for the environment because heating systems generate a lot of heat that escapes into the global climate system. Perhaps, in the future, we are going to turn on air conditioning a little more often than now. But modern AC systems are four times more efficient than heaters because instead of producing heat they absorb it from the air like refrigerators and, therefore, do not release any additional thermal energy into the global climate system.

Another benefit of global warming concerns human health as cold is more dangerous for people than warm weather. A team of researchers (Zhao et al., The Lancet Planetary Health, 2021, vol. 5, 7; 415-425) have analyzed mortality data for 43 countries between 2000 and 2019. According to this study, which covered nearly half of the world’s population, about 5 million people die every year due to adverse thermal conditions, of which, surprisingly, 4.5 million die of cold compared to 0.5 million victims of heatwaves.

Conclusions