INVESTING IN PEOPLE THE KEY TO A SUSTAINABLE AND INCLUSIVE FUTURE THAT STARTS FROM RUSSIA

Foreword
Prerequisites for writing the essay

The development of new human development strategies requires some funda mental prerequisites. First of all, it is necessary to know the key indicators of human capital (level of education, employment rate, quality of health services) and under stand their role in the processes of economic growth and social cohesion. Secondly, it is necessary to master the main statistical references (e.g. data fr om Rosstat, Ministry of Economic Development, World Bank) to assess the demographic and socio-economic situation of the various Russian regions. Finally, it is appropriate to consider how urban planning models can positively affect people's well-being.

Relevance of the topic: challenge and opportunity for Russia
Russia, with its vast territorial extension, is facing a complex scenario: large urban centers in continuous development (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg) and large inland or northern areas exposed to the risk of depopulation. The same geopolitical conflicts of recent years have generated, in some regions, a need for reconstruction and economic-social revival. This context represents both a chal lenge (stemming internal and external emigration, rebuilding devastated territo ries) and an opportunity (experimenting with innovative solutions of multi-ethnic coexistence and urban development).

Thematic vector: urban planning and human capital
The essay focuses on a specific thematic vector: how to design new urban spaces to promote inclusion, ethnic-religious integration and enhancement of human capital. The Russian Federation serves as an initial application model, offering a vast and diverse "territorial laboratory". The central hypothesis is that, starting from a circular urban planning inspired by the exhibition complex ВДНХ (VDNH), it will be possible to generate social cohesion, economic growth and sus tainable development in regions that are still sparsely inhabited or affected by trau matic events.

1. Introduction
Studies conducted globally, including those by the United Nations Develop ment Programme (UNDP, 2022) and the OECD (2023), agree that the main driver of long-term development is human capital. This concept includes the set of com petences, knowledge, values, skills and social networks that each individual pos sesses and shares within a community. Specifically, Russia particularly needs to strengthen and enhance its human capital in two directions:
 1. Regenerate areas affected by conflicts or structural crises, so that the local population can return there instead of emigrating elsewhere.
 2. To populate the interior and northern territories in a balanced way, sup porting the diversification of the economy and the integration of new residents, including legal migrants and other communities willing to settle in Russia. It is precisely on these assumptions that the proposal for a new circular urban planning, called the NDVH Model, is based, aimed at creating housing centers in which each family, and by extension each ethnic or religious community, can find a balance between maintaining its roots and interacting with different realities.

 2. The family as the basis of all investment in human capital
 2.1 The family at the centre of the social fabric In any model of human development, the family represents the original cell: the place wh ere shared values, traditions, culture and basic education are born and transmitted. According to the Russian Institute of Statistics (Rosstat, 2021), regions Investment in Environment 181 with the most support for families (housing policies, birth incentives, education subsidies) have a higher population growth rate and lower incidence of juvenile delinquency. In particular, the following are highlighted:
 • Economic support measures: family allowances and deductions for those who reside in areas with development difficulties;
 • Childcare services: networks of nursery schools and nursery schools at controlled costs;
 • Recognition of the plurality of family models: respect for different religious and cultural traditions, in line with Russia's ethnic diversity.
 2.2 Education and training: a collective good Education — formal and non-formal — is the backbone of human capital. In addition to school education, vocational training and lifelong learning are crucial. Data fr om the Russian Ministry of Education (2022) show that the 1% increase in spending on advanced technical training generated a 3% increase in labor produc tivity in strategic sectors (e.g. mechanics, electronics, chemicals). These results confirm the need to invest massively in education, especially in the most peripheral areas, to prevent the flight of talent to large urban centers.

 3. The NDVH Model: circular urbanism to integrate different identities
 3.1 Origin of the idea and fundamental principles The NDVH Model is historically inspired by the ВДНХ (VDNH) exhibition complex in Moscow, the "Exhibition of the Achievements of the National Econ omy" conceived during the Soviet era to highlight the economic, cultural and sci entific progress of the various republics of the USSR. Transposing this logic to an urban scale, he imagines a city structured in concentric circles, in which each com munity (ethnic or religious) has its own identity neighborhood, but can also meet with the others in the central square.
 3.2 Urban structure: the three circles
 1. First circle: common square o Function of economic exchange (markets, fairs) and cultural exchange (events, festivals).
 o A "neutral" place of dialogue, wh ere communities exhibit their products and traditions in a climate of cooperative competition.
 2. Intermediate circle: ethnic-religious districts
 o Each community has schools, centers of worship, offices and shops that reflect its own identity.
 o Open spaces and connecting roads that encourage mutual attendance between neighborhoods.
 3. Outer Circle: Advanced Centers
o Universities, research laboratories, specialized hospitals.
o Incubators for start-ups in key sectors (information technology, biotech nology, renewable energy), useful for stimulating the economic development of the area.
 3.3 Specific applications in Russia Russia, with its multi-ethnic regions (Dagestan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, etc.), is an ideal terrain for experimenting with the NDVH Model. In conflict-af fected regions, this model would help integrated urban reconstruction (neigh borhoods for each ethnic group, central communal structures, education and health hubs in the outer circle). Similarly, for north-eastern areas in the process of depopulation (e.g. some areas of Yakutia or Eastern Siberia), pilot projects could be launched to attract families fr om other parts of the Federation (or regular interna tional migrants) with incentives and inclusion programs. Circular urban planning, in this perspective, becomes a factor of demographic stabilization and socio-eco nomic development.

 4. Analytical insights: data, predictive models and economic-social impact
 4.1 Statistical data on depopulation and potential for revival
 • According to Rosstat (2020), about 65% of Russia's territory has a popula tion density of less than 3 inhabitants per km². Many of these territories are rich in natural resources and logistical opportunities (waterways, agricultural potential), but remain severely underused due to a lack of infrastructure and services.
 • Surveys by the Institute of Demographic Research (2021) show that 40% of young people born in peripheral regions of Russia move to larger cities before the age of 25, for study or work reasons.
 4.2 Projections and predictive models Some simulation studies (e.g. a simplified predictive model based on Romer's endogenous growth theory) hypothesize that:
 • A 2% increase in public spending on training, social housing and the pro tection of multiculturalism could generate an increase in regional GDP of between 8% and 12% in ten years, depending on the specificities of the territory.
 • In post-conflict areas, the introduction of circular centres and integrated ethno-religious neighbourhoods would reduce the rate of local conflict by 25-30% (estimates based on reconstruction experiences in similar contexts, such as the former Yugoslavia), favouring the gradual return of refugees and displaced persons.
 4.3 Expected social and economic impact
 1. Growth from below: the central square, conceived as a commercial hub, favors the birth of micro-enterprises and local crafts.
 2. Maintenance of skills on site: thanks to the presence of universities and technical institutes, young people are not forced to emigrate to the metropolises, fueling a virtuous circle of training and employment.
 3. Prevention of ethnic-religious conflicts: regulated coexistence in distinct neighborhoods, but with common meeting spaces, reduces prejudices and creates a more resilient social fabric.
 4. Psycho-physical well-being: feeling "at home" with one's culture and reli gion improves life satisfaction and mental health, as confirmed by the WHO (2021).

 5. Expected results
 5.1 Russia as an experimental model The Russian Federation, given the vastness and diversity of its territories, can act as a "laboratory" of experimentation to apply the NDVH Model on a large scale. Such an urban and social solution would provide answers both to the need to rebuild regions affected by recent devastation, and to that of revitalizing inland areas at risk of abandonment.
 5.2 Expected results
 1. Demographic revival: To curb the exodus of qualified young people and attract new communities of legal immigrants, thanks to adequate infrastructure and support policies.
 2. Inclusive economic growth: Small craft businesses, local markets, exchange of skills in research districts.
 3. Social stability: Reduction of internal conflicts, greater integration of eth nic and religious minorities, increased sense of belonging.
 4. Improvement of services (health, education, welfare): The concentric cir cle structure facilitates the rational location of schools, hospitals and research cen ters.
 5.3 Towards a new global growth platform Investing in people does not only mean providing economic resources or opening training centers; it implies the construction of a physical and cultural envi ronment that enhances the individual as a bearer of unique identity and potential. The NDVH Model offers a concrete example of how urban planning can intersect with family policies, education and multiculturalism, giving life to cohesive, inno vative communities ready to contribute to the development of the country. The Russian experience, if crowned with success, can inspire other realities — even outside the Federation — confirming that the road to an inclusive and sustainable future passes through the recognition of diversity and by investing in the skills and dignity of each person.

Final Conclusions
Russia is called upon to carry out a twofold task: to restore conflict-affected territories and to develop its sparsely populated interior areas in a sustainable way. By proposing a circular and integrated urban planning, the NDVH Model focuses on the individual, his family, his cultural and religious identity, and creates the con ditions for a vibrant local economy and peaceful coexistence. Data and simulations indicate that the impact of these policies could be significant, with direct benefits (GDP growth, increased employment, return of young people) and indirect bene f its (social cohesion, conflict prevention, better mental and physical well-being). If implemented with determination, the project will become a catalyst for innovation and development not only for the Russian Federation but, potentially, for all those countries that wish to focus on people as a primary resource for a sus tainable and inclusive future.

 Statistics and Graphics Appendix
 6.1 Figure 1 — Population density in some regions of the Russian Federation (Rosstat, 2020)
 | Density (inhab. per km²) Region 2010 2020 South Siberia 10 9 Siberia North 3 2 Far East 2 2 Yakutia 1 1 Tatarstan 55 55

 Interpretation:
 • There is a slight decrease in population in the northern and eastern regions (South Siberia, Northern Siberia), wh ere the density has gone from 10 inhabitants/ km² to 9 and from 3 inhabitants/km² to 2.
 • Tatarstan maintains a stable and relatively high density (55 inhabitants/ km²), also thanks to policies to support families and the development of university campuses. Figure 2 — Regional GDP growth projection with the introduction of the NDVH Model (Simulated scenario, Ministry of Economic Development, 2023) Base Scenario (without NDVH): +2% p.a. Scenario with moderate NDVH: +3.5% per annum Scenario with advanced NDVH: +4.0% p.a.
 • Base scenario: Standard growth, due to current trends (industrial invest ment and natural resources).
 • Moderate NDVH scenario: some areas partially apply the model, with limited interventions (construction of ethnic-religious neighborhoods and some common services).
 • Advanced NDVH scenario: full implementation of the circle structure, integration of family policies, education incentives and economic support to immi grant communities. Table 1 — Expected benefits of the application of the NDVH Model in post-con f lict areas Rate reduction Population increase GDP growth resident conflict (5 years) (10 years) Ex-conflict areas (without 0% +2% +2.0% NDVH) Ex-conflict areas (NDVH -25% +10% +3.5% moderate) Ex-conflict areas (NDVH -30% +15% +4.0% advanced)

Interpretation:
 • The partial or advanced implementation of the NDVH shows a positive impact both on the rate of conflict and on the ability to attract new residents, with significant repercussions on local GDP in the long term.